Hofferbert in Transit: A Dynamic Stages Model of the Urban Policy Process

This article presents a reformulation and empirical test of Hofferbert's (1974 ) “stages” heuristic, a model that fell largely out of favor due to criticisms that it does not effectively account for (1) feedback loops, or the possibility that policymakers learn from past experiences, and (2) the importance of intergovernmental relations. We update this model and apply it in the context of urban transit policymaking, using revenue flows to and from the government as an indicator of both recursive behavior and intergovernmental influence. The results suggest that these modifications reestablish the explanatory power of the stages model.