| Abstract: | This article uses four models to identify the best predictors of state poverty levels and changes in state poverty rates since the implementation of welfare reform. The policy decisions based on the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) by the states are tested along with more traditional variables identified in the literature. Using several measures of state poverty, the analysis finds that those states with the lowest poverty rates are those with the healthiest economies, and the most generous state spending on Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). States with the highest percentage of their TANF rolls made up of black citizens tend to have the highest rates of poverty. Initial poverty rates are found to be important in that states with higher initial poverty levels are capable of generating a larger reduction in poverty than states with lower initial rates. With the exception of limited evidence on sanctions, none of the PRWORA–based policies were found to have any effect on poverty rates. |
