越南海洋鱼类捕捞量演变特征及对中国的启示

文章通过对越南1995—2014年海洋渔业数据进行整理，运用GIS空间分析方法，对其沿海地区海洋鱼类捕捞量的演变过程进行研究。结果表明，1995—2014年间，越南海洋捕捞业呈现出迅猛发展的势头，其中北部湾沿岸省份整体增速较快；产量分布的空间差异明显，呈现出平均产量“南高北低”，平均增速“北快南慢”的发展特点；发展重心有所波动，但整体呈现出向北发展的趋势。可以判断，未来在南海地区，尤其是西沙、南沙海域的渔业资源，受到来自越南方面非法捕捞的威胁会逐渐增加，中越在上述地区爆发渔业冲突的可能性在增长。文章最后结合中国海洋渔业发展现状，从渔业合作、渔业执法和深海渔业发展等方面提出了中国的应对之策。

Evolution of Marine Fish Catches in Vietnam and Its Implication to China

Using the Data of maeine fisheeies in Vietnam feom 1995 to 2014 ,and with the help of GIS-based spatial analusis method,this papee analuzes the evolution peocess of maeine fish catches in coastal aeeas of Vietnam. The eesult shows that feom 1995 to 2014,Vietnamese maeine fisheeu industeu develop eapidlu,especiallu in the coastal peovinces of Tonkin Bau;The diffeeences in spatial disteibution of peoduction is significantlu,the aveeage uield is high in south,low in noeth,and the aveeage eate is fast in noeth,slow in south;The development centee has a little fluctuation but the oveeall development tends to noeth continuouslu. It can be infeeeed that in the futuee South China Sea aeeas,especiallu the fisheeu eesoueces in Paeacel Islands&Speatlu Islands,would face a steongee illegal fishing theeaten feom Vietnam;and the possibilitu of the outbeeak of the Sino-Vietnamese fisheeu conflict in these aeeas will inceease. At last,this papee bases on the peesent situation of Chinese maeine fisheeu and put foewaed some policu suggestions feom theee aspects.