阿富汗大变局:地缘政治和安全格局的演变

当前,阿富汗正在经历重大变局.阿富汗塔利班(阿塔)成功卷土重来,并且完成临时政府组建.尽管仍有多重挑战,但阿塔执政已不存在根本性威胁.这引发阿富汗地缘政治格局和地区安全形势的深度调整.在地缘政治格局方面,整体呈现"美国西方影响力下降,地区国家影响力上升"这一"东升西降"趋势.美国正在从"局内人"变为"局外人",但仍将发...

Great Political Changes in Afghanistan:The Evolution of Geopolitics and Security Pattern

At present,Afghanistan is undergoing great changes and Afghan Taliban returned to power. Although there are still multiple challenges,there is no fundamental threat to Afghan Taliban ’s governance. The influence of the United States and the West has declined,while the influence of regional countries has increased. Nevertheless, the U. S. remains an important player in Afghanistan. The influence of India and Pakistan in Afghanistan has reversed,with India declining and Pakistan rising;Iran’s influence in Afghanistan has improved,and its actual influence is second only to Pakistan. Russia has made a successful comeback in Afghanistan. Afghan Taliban’s regaining power and the withdrawal of U. S. troops do not mean the end of the war against terrorism in Afghanistan and the region. The security situation will face some new challenges and show greater uncertainty. The disputes between Afghan Taliban and ISIS-Khorasan have become the main security contradiction within Afghanistan. It is very difficult for Afghan Taliban to be completely cut off from Al Qaeda and its affiliated organizations. The security situation in Afghanistan would have spillover effects in both Central Asia and Pakistan,which will have a far-reaching impact on regional security.