日本对亚洲直接投资动机与潜力估计——基于扩展引力模型的实证检验

近年来,日本对外直接投资规模不断增长,但对亚洲地区直接投资规模却停滞不前。通过日本对亚洲11个国家(地区)直接投资研究发现:首先,日本对亚洲直接投资与东道国(地区)和日本GDP规模成正比,与东道国(地区)距日本地理距离成反比。其次,日本对亚洲国家(地区)直接投资动机表现为市场寻求型、效率寻求型和资源寻求型,战略资产寻求动机表现不明显。最后,日本对亚洲国家(地区)直接投资会偏好制度环境较好的国家或地区。此外,日本对亚洲各国(地区)投资潜力分为三类:投资潜力成熟型国家包括新加坡、韩国、泰国和越南。投资潜力成长型国家(地区)包括菲律宾和中国香港地区。投资潜力待开发型国家(地区)包括中国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、印度和中国台湾地区。

The Motivation and Potential of Japan's Outward Direct Investment in Asia:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Extensive Gravity Model

In recent years,Japan’s outward direct investment has been growing,but its outward direct investment in Asia has stagnated.An examination of Japan’s outward direct investment in 11 Asian countries(regions)has found that,first of all,the scale of GDP,both of the home country and the host country,has a positive effect on Japan’s OFDI in Asia.The distance between the home country and the host country has a negative effect on Japan’s OFDI in Asia.Secondly,the motives of Japan’s OFDI in Asia are marketing-seeking,efficiency-seeking and resource-seeking,but the motive of strategic asset-seeking is not obvious.Thirdly,Japan’s OFDI favors Asian countries with better institutional environment.In addition,by simulating investment potential based on the regression result,the 11 host countries(regions)can be divided into three categories:(1)mature investment potential countries,which includes Singapore,South Korea,Thailand,and Vietnam;(2)growing investment potential countries(regions),which include Chinese Hong Kong and Philippines;(3)developing investment potential countries(regions),which includes China,Chinese Taiwan,India,Indonesia,and Malaysia.