Parity and stability: Some conclusions from geometrical models of military operations in Central Europe

This paper presents a model analysis in support of the assertion that parity at lower forces levels does not by itself improve military stability in central Europe. Most of all, a stable military regime requires that force concentrations can be constrained in a verifiable manner the more, the lower the mutual force levels become. However, this is not to be obtained with a doctrine of linear defense by means of homogeneous forces consisting of the traditional highly mobile multi‐purpose forces designed to be employed in all combat modes. Theoretically, a stable situation would result if the antagonists adopted a two‐component defense consisting of ‘reactive’ defense elements deployed in some depth and incapable of being employed in large scale offensive operations and of a smaller fraction (about 20%) of the traditional armor forces serving as operational reserves.

The basic dilemma of nearly all reactive defense elements proposed in the West‐German military reform debate rests with the generally shared assumption that mobility is incompatible with defensiveness. However, the ratios at which the traditional elements would have to be substituted by stationary reactive elements are quite high. Thus, a new type of mobility is required for reactive defense elements that permits to counter‐concentrate quickly without being useable for large scale offensive maneuver.