The anticipation of interstate conflict

This study posits a predictive model of crisis escalation—one of the central concerns in the study of conflict. Crises arise in differing contexts, and these contexts are assessed in terms of their varying propensities to develop into open international conflict. The point of departure is the model first developed in “The War Trap Revisited” (Bueno de Mesquita, 1985). Some extensions are made to his theory, aspects of perception and misperception are incorporated, and a previously discontinuous predictive argument is refined into a continuous one. The extensions are tested empirically using data on European disputes between 1815 and 1965.