Citizen uncertainty and turnout in the 1980 presidential campaign

In this paper the concept of uncertainty regarding for whom a citizen should vote is developed and is shown to be an important component of rational choice models of decision making. Uncertainty is measured using the 7-point issue scales from the 1980 Center for Political Studies survey. A nonrecursive, simultaneous-equation model of the determinants of uncertainty and turnout is developed and is estimated using a “modified” two-stage least squares technique. Among other results, we find that uncertainty is the most important determinant of whether or not citizens vote—stronger than civic duty, education, or strength of partisanship.