A statistical study of the effect of the great depression on elections: The Weimar Republic, 1930–1933

The four Reichstag elections in Germany between 1930 and 1933 are the object of this study. A cross-section analysis of 13 regions and a time series analysis show no conclusive impact of unemployment on the vote share of the National Socialist Party. A pooled cross-section/time-series analysis simultaneously considering sociodemographic and economic factors shows, however, that the Nazi party significantly benefitted from higher unemployment. The farmers tended to support the NSDAP while the catholics tended to reject it. The same holds for the totalitarian parties as a whole, the principal one beside the Nazi being the German Communist Party. A Gedankenexperiment suggests that, if unemployment had not risen from 14% in July 1930 to 52% of employed workers in January 1933, the Nazi party would have received 24% instead of 44% of the vote in March 1933.