A Bayesian Multilevel Modeling Approach to Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data |
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Authors: | Shor Boris; Bafumi Joseph; Keele Luke; Park David |
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Institution: |
Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago,1155 E. 60th Street, Suite 185, Chicago, IL 60637
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Abstract: |
Joseph Bafumi
Department of Government, Dartmouth College,6108 Silsby HallHanover, NH 03755 e-mail: joseph.bafumi{at}dartmouth.edu
Luke Keele
Department of Political Science, Ohio State University,2137 Derby Hall, 154 N Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210 e-mail: keele.4{at}polisci.osu.edu
David Park
Department of Political Science, George Washington University,1922 F Street, N.W. 414C, Washington, DC 20052 e-mail: dkp{at}gwu.edu
e-mail: bshor{at}uchicago.edu (corresponding author) The analysis of time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data hasbecome increasingly popular in political science. Meanwhile,political scientists are also becoming more interested in theuse of multilevel models (MLM). However, little work existsto understand the benefits of multilevel modeling when appliedto TSCS data. We employ Monte Carlo simulations to benchmarkthe performance of a Bayesian multilevel model for TSCS data.We find that the MLM performs as well or better than other commonestimators for such data. Most importantly, the MLM is moregeneral and offers researchers additional advantages.
Authors' note: A previous version of this article was presentedat the 2005 Midwest Political Science Meeting. We would liketo thank the following for comments and advice in writing thispaper: Andrew Gelman, Nathaniel Beck, Greg Wawro, Sam Cooke,John Londregan, David Brandt. Any errors are our own. |
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