Digital Analysis of Crime Statistics: Does Crime Conform to Benford’s Law? |
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Authors: | Matthew J Hickman Stephen K Rice |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Criminal Justice, Seattle University, 901 12th Ave, PO Box 222000, Seattle, WA 98122, USA |
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Abstract: | Benford’s law suggests that the distribution of leading (leftmost) digits in data of an anomalous nature (i.e., without relationship)
will conform to a formula of logarithmic intervals known as the Benford distribution. Forensic auditors have successfully
used digital analysis vis-à-vis the Benford distribution to detect financial fraud, while government investigators have used
a corollary of the distribution (focused on trailing digits) to detect scientific fraud in medical research. This study explored
whether crime statistics are Benford distributed. We examined crime statistics at the National, State, and local level in
order to test for conformity to the Benford distribution, and found that National- and State-level summary UCR data conform
to Benford’s law. When National data were disaggregated by offense type we found varying degrees of conformity, with murder,
rape, and robbery indicating less conformity than other offense types. Some tentative implications of these findings are discussed,
as are areas for further research. |
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