Following the price: identifying cocaine trafficking networks in Colombia

ABSTRACT

International cocaine trafficking has been well-studied, but little is known about cocaine flows within Colombia, the largest producer and exporter of cocaine in the world. Using a unique dataset on the monthly wholesale prices of cocaine across 32 municipios in 2016, this paper estimates patterns of flows of cocaine within Colombia. For the 496 possible resulting pairs of municipios, price differentials are used to infer direction of flow, and price correlations are used to infer connectedness. Among the new findings, 38 suspected municipio-to-municipio flows that are new to the literature are identified. Interestingly, cocaine is inferred to flow through two distinct networks: one that originates in Buenaventura and the other in three points in southern and eastern Colombia. These networks may correspond to distinct criminal trafficking systems, a finding that has potential implications for drug control policies and measures.