Toward a social indicators model of aggregate American political behavior: 1948–1976

Using time series data from 15 post-World War II congressional elections, a nine-equation social indicators model of aggregate American political behavior is estimated. Six exogenous social and economic conditions and nine endogenous political variables are linked in a schematic flow across three sectors of the national polity. Findings indicate that relatively short-term social and political conditions exert greater effects on election outcomes than do long-term partisan alignments. The party composition of the executive and legislative branches of the federal government affects defense expenditures as a proportion of all budgetary outlays, but has only weak impact on health and education expenses. Criticisms and suggestions for future work are discussed.A preliminary version of this paper was presented at the American Sociological Association Meetings in San Francisco in August 1975.