The organizational dimension of budgetary forecasting: Suggestions from revenue forecasting in the states

Officials in the fifty states were asked about: (a) practices and developments in the forecasting of revenues, (b) their perceptions of improvements in forecast accuracy, and (c) perceived improvements in the knowledge which specialists and elected officials have about the economies of their states. Findings suggest that explicit attention should be given to the organizational dimensions of forecasting and not merely to its technical aspects. Organizational processes which promote effective interaction and questioning of underlying assumptions seem to be related to both forecast accuracy and improved knowledge. These processes raise important questions about the relationships between career specialists and elected officials in organizing to think about the future.