Revisiting prediction models in policing: Identifying high-risk offenders |
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Authors: | Wesley G Jennings |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Criminology, Law, & Society, University of Florida, 201 Walker Hall, P.O. Box 115950, 32611-5950 Gainesville, FL |
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Abstract: | The use of prediction models for classifying offenders has been a common practice by the criminal justice system. Given the
recent developments in criminal career research and continuing evidence that a small proportion of chronic offenders are responsible
for the majority of crime, there is a continued need to identify high-risk offenders early on in their offending careers.
The present study provides support for the accuracy of an innovative prediction instrument that was developed for identifying
high-risk offenders in a rural county in a southern state. Offender risk classification was found to be associated with reoffending
across different dimensions of assessment and the high-risk offenders had accumulated a greater mean number of arrests upon
six-month follow-up when compared to the medium and low-risk offenders. Policy implications and directions for future research
incorporating prediction models in policing are also discussed. |
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