The information content of elections and varieties of the partisan political business cycle |
| |
Authors: | Cameron A. Shelton |
| |
Affiliation: | 1. The Robert Day School of Economics and Finance, Claremont McKenna College, Claremont, USA
|
| |
Abstract: | This event study uses economic forecasts and opinion polls to measure the response of expectations to election surprise. Use of forecast data complements older work on partisan cycles by allowing a tighter link between election and response thereby mitigating concerns of endogeneity and omitted variables. I find that forecasters respond swiftly and significantly to election surprise. I further argue that the response ought to vary across countries with different institutional foundations. In support, I find that there exist three distinct patterns in forecasters’ responses to partisan surprise corresponding to Hall and Soskice’s three varieties of capitalism. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|