Examining the Externalities of Welfare Reform: TANF and Crime

This study explores the relationship between welfare policy variation in the United States following the introduction of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and its relationship with various types of crime. While early studies of the effects of welfare assistance on crime consistently found a negative association, more recent examinations have complicated these findings. Nearly all prior research focuses on Aid for Families with Dependent Children or early years of TANF. Examining a longer time-series and using propensity score weighting to model the tendencies of states to select into more stringent welfare regimes, we find a strong association between states with greater levels of welfare restrictiveness and higher rates of violent crime. There is mixed evidence that this relationship also exists with property crimes.