The Sources of Authoritarian Control after the Cold War: East Africa and the Former Soviet Union

Why have some post-Cold War autocrats consistently been able to sideline opposition and avoid debilitating elite defections while others have faced repeated challenges? Drawing on interviews, the media, and the academic literature, this article focuses on two sets of factors affecting the extent of incumbent control over opposition: the degree of state economic control and the extent of divisions in national identity. Two sets of most similar cases are compared: Belarus and Ukraine, and Kenya and Tanzania. These comparisons are used to highlight the importance of distinguishing between the causes of democracy and those of authoritarian breakdown.