冷战后缅甸对华政策刍议

1990年以来,出于维护和巩固政权的考虑,缅甸军政府亟须中国的支持和援助,特殊友华政策构成其对外政策的重心。随着上世纪90年代中期印度推行“东向政策”、缅甸加入东盟,军政府开始获得来自印度和东盟的支持,外部依赖多元化,特殊友华程度相对降低,但中国仍是军政府的主要外部支持力量。缅国内政局变化是中缅关系未来走向的决定性因素,印度对缅政策等外部因素、中缅经贸合作程度(利益捆绑程度)等是影响未来中缅关系的重要因素。在缅甸政局稳定的情况下,中缅关系仍将维持友好。但即使缅甸政局变化,中缅关系出现波折,也不可能恶化到敌对,常态将是普通甚或良好。这是由缅甸所处的地缘环境决定的。

A Tentative Comment on Myanmar''''s Policies towards China after the Cold War

Myanmar's military government,for the sake of strengthening its regime,is always in much need of the support from China since 1990.Therefore Myanmar's military government put the most weight on its extraordinary friendly policy towards China.India's initiating "looking east" policy and Myanmar's joining ASEAN in mid 1990s made the military government begin gaining support from India and ASEAN.Although the military government depends on a little less friendly relationship with China than before,it still wins more support from China than from other countries.It is the domestic politics in Myanmar that is determined to the development of Sino-Myanmar relation which will be greatly influenced by the factors as follows:the development of the economic cooperation between China and Myanmar,and India's policies towards Myanmar and so on.In terms of keeping domestic stability,Myanmar military government should maintain friendly relationship with China.Even though some changes take place in Myanmar's politics,Sino-Myanmar relationship in which there are fluctuations for some time,would not deteriorate to the ground or become antagonism eventually.It is geopolitics that determines Myanmar's carrying out the normal or friendly policy towards China.