奥巴马政府“阿富巴”战略：挑战与展望

奥巴马政府上台后,通过政策宣示和实际操作逐渐形成了一套综合而务实的＂阿富巴＂战略。然而,＂阿富巴＂战略的推行不会一帆风顺。一方面,它会受到来自国家行为体和地区国际体系层次的制衡。另一方面,它还面临着来自非国家行为体和社会层次的反击。从前者来看,＂阿富巴＂特殊的地缘战略位置决定着美国会面临来自俄罗斯和中国的权力对抗,尤其体现在阿富汗运输通道的争夺上。从后者来看,塔利班和＂基地＂组织等极端势力将给＂阿富巴＂战略的推行带来持久的威胁,这与＂阿富巴＂边境地区尤其是巴基斯坦西北普什图部落区的社会形态有着密切联系。由于面临复杂的周边环境和对手的极力反击,＂阿富巴＂战略的实施效果并不显著。退出战略的执行并不意味着美国真正放弃既定的战略目标,也攸关＂阿富巴＂战略的最终成败。

The Afpak Strategy of Obama Administration: Challenges and Prospects

Since Obama administration took office, it has gradually formed a comprehensive and pragmatic Afpak strategy by means of policy statements and practical operation. However, the implementation of the Afpak strategy will not be smooth. For one thing, it faces the challenges from some countries and the regional international system. Also for another, it faces the counterattack from non-state actors and social levels. From the perspective of the former, the special geo-strategic location of Afpak decides that t...