1970年代美苏粮食贸易的双层博弈分析

美苏20世纪70年代的粮食贸易因其独特形式,成为透视这一时期美苏关系的一个窗口。本文系统回顾了美苏之间在70年代进行的粮食贸易,介绍美苏之间进行粮食贸易的背景、70年代的两次购粮高潮以及1975年之后美苏间粮食贸易的走向。同时使用双层博弈模型,分析了国内层次、国际层次利益集团之间的博弈,最终总结出美苏之间在70年代的粮食贸易,是建立在双方实力的对比之上的,是当时国内博弈和国际博弈综合作用的结果。不管是国际还是国内层次发生变化,最终都会导致粮食贸易的走向发生变化。

Analysis of dual game in US-USSR grain deals in 1970s

US-Soviet unique grain deals in the 1970s offered a window on US-Soviet relations at the time. By systematically reviewing the deals, the article gave their backgrounder, the two upsurges in the 1970s, as well as the trends of development since 1975. It also used dual game model to analyze the game at home and international levels and finally came out with the conclusion that the deals were based on the balance of their bilateral strength and was the result of comprehensive role played by home and internati...