Crimes and the need for Sanction Capacity in the Netherlands: Trends and Backgrounds

This article presents recent trends in, and forecasts of, the need for sanction capacity in the Netherlands. Different types of crime show different trends at the moment. The need for prison capacity is still growing but at a smaller rate than before. The Jukebox-1 model, which is used for (a part of) the forecasts, is described. It relates the trends in the capacity needed for prisons and task-sanctions for adults to trends in crime and law enforcement activities. Trends in crime are in turn related to demographic and socio-economic factors and law enforcement performance indicators. Some policy simulations with the model are sketched.