泰国立宪君主政治权威兴衰的过程、原因与趋势

本文采用“政治体制-社会结构-经济形态”层级式互动框架，对泰国立宪君主政治权威兴衰的过程、原因与趋势进行了分析。指出，泰国立宪君主政治权威的发展变化，主要取决于跨越式发展进程中结构性失衡引起的新旧利益集团的政治权力竞争与妥协。20世纪60年代以来，泰国立宪君主政治权威复兴的根本原因在于军人集团与王室-保皇派从冲突到结盟的政治关系转变。从长期来看，新资本集团的政治崛起将使得王室-保皇派再次被边缘化。

The Rise and Fall of the Political Authority of the Constitutional Monarch of Thailand:Process, Cause and Trend

This paper uses the three-tiered dynamic framework of "Political System / Social Structure / Economic Form" to analyze the process,cause and trend of the rise and fall of the political authority of the constitutional monarch of Thailand.This paper points out that,the development and change of the political authority of the constitutional monarch of Thailand mainly depends on the competition and compromise for political power between the new and old interest groups,which is caused by the structural imbalance during the leap-forward development of Thailand.The root cause of the rejuvenation of the political authority of the constitutional monarch of Thailand since 1960s is the change of political relationship from conflict to alliance between the military group and the royal family & royalists group.In the long run,the political rise of the neo-capital group will make the royal family & royalists group to be marginalized again.