中国经济发展态势和调整转型——2013年第1季度宏观经济分析

今年1季度中国GDP增长7.7%,工业增加值增长9.5%,CPI上涨2.4%,与希望回升的预期相反,均比上年同期和上季度要低,但增长回落正是经济调整转型之机。M2余额超过百万亿元,不能仅从货币政策操作考察是否存在货币超发,而要深入一步,看看政府投资创造货币的特殊机制。房地产调控中的博弈,一方面说明政策设计存在缺陷;另一方面也与特殊的货币创造机制有关。撤销铁道部,组建铁路总公司,实现了组织机构上的政企分离,但经济上仍合在一起。以债务处理为契机,明晰产权安排和经营责任,进一步推进铁路改革。

Developmental Tendency and Transformation of the Chinese Economy

The first quarter of this year witnesses a GDP growth rate of 7.7%, an industrial added value growth rate of 9.5%, and a consumer price inflation rate of 2.4% in China. Contrary to the expectations for recov ery, the data are below those both of the same period last year and of the previous quarter. However, the decrease in growth rates provides exactly the opportunity for economic adjustment and transformation. The M2 surplus of over one thousand billion renminbi yuan should not be reviewed as monetary glut merely from the operational perspective of monetary policy but from a further step on the special mechanism of money supply entailed by government invest ments. The games in real estate regulation on the one hand indicate that there are defects in policy design, on the other hand are related to the special money supply mechanism. Dissolution of the Ministry of Railways and founding of the China Railway Corporation realized the organizational but not economic separation of government functions from enterprise management. Liability settlement should be taken as an opportunity to clarify ownership arrangement and management accountability and to further promote reform in the rail industry.