Let's stick together: Understanding Africa's secessionist deficit

Over the last 40 years, Africa has experienced relatively fewersecessionist conflicts than most other regions of the world,even though it is otherwise plagued with political violenceand its countries tend to display a higher prevalence of manyof the factors usually associated with separatism. After empiricallyestablishing Africa’s secessionist deficit, this articlereviews the few existing explanations for it before articulatinga theory which singles out the benefits to African regionalelites (and those who depend on them) of weak sovereign states.In Africa as elsewhere, the article argues, regional leaderscan be expected to capitalize on local grievances and promotesecessions if the potential rewards of a separatist state, inthe absence of international recognition, outweigh the potentialrewards associated with control or partial control of institutionsof the sovereign national state. What distinguishes Africanelites is the relatively greater material returns to sovereigntythat they face. Given the continent’s poverty, the undiversifiednature and commodity dependence of its economies, and the relativelack of accountability of state power, Africa offers a significantmaterial premium to internationally recognized sovereignty,tilting the odds for elites in favour of staying within thestate, even if they do not immediately benefit from power atthe centre. The article then tests the argument against actualAfrican cases of secession, showing that they are usually afunction of variations in the relative rewards of sovereignty.In conclusion, it argues that Africa’s weak sovereigntyequilibrium has contributed to its failure to develop.