中国城市产业承载力的影响因素及分解研究

城市产业承载力提升对于解决城市发展面临的资源环境瓶颈、提升城市发展质量、推动城市可持续发展发挥着重要作用。基于2007-2016年280个地级市数据,利用面板模型和Shapley分解方法量化分析城市产业承载力的影响因素及其相对重要程度,结果表明:基础设施、科技创新、环境质量和就业状况均对城市产业承载力具有促进作用,而科技创新是城市产业承载力增长的主要推动因素;基础设施、环境质量和就业状况对城市产业承载力的现状和潜力指数均具有促进作用,基础设施和科技创新则对提升城市产业承载力禀赋有较高的解释度。此外,各因素对城市产业承载力的影响有显著的区域差异。

Research on the Influential Factors and Decomposition of Urban Industrial Carrying Capacity in China

The improvement of urban industrial carrying capacity plays an important role in solving the resource and environment bottlenecks faced by urban development,improving the quality of urban development,and promoting the sustainable development of cities.Based on the data of 280 prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2016,this paper uses panel model and Shapley decomposition method to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors and relative importance of urban industrial carrying capacity.The results show that infrastructure,scientific and technological innovation,environmental quality and employment status have a promoting effect on urban industrial carrying capacity,while scientific and technological innovation is the main driving factor for the growth of urban industrial carrying capacity.Infrastructure,environmental quality and employment status can promote the status quo and potential index of urban industrial carrying capacity.Infrastructure and scientific and technological innovation have a high degree of explanation for improving the endowment of urban industrial carrying capacity.In addition,there are significant regional differences in the impact of various factors on urban industrial carrying capacity.