当前国际形势及其发展趋势

在＂后金融危机时代＂,世界与地区秩序处于新旧交替之中,复杂性、不确定性与高风险性成为当今国际形势的阶段性主要特征。而发达国家经济困局严重拖累世界经济复苏进程,全球性社会政治抗争风潮迭起加剧各国治理难度,国际战略力量对比新变化催生大国＂竞合＂博弈,传统与非传统安全挑战同步增长恶化国际安全环境,亚太地缘战略格局复杂重组,这是当前国际形势的五大特征。展望2012年,世界经济复苏温和而曲折,＂大选年＂加剧国际政治经济敏感性,西方与新兴大国＂竞合＂关系更趋复杂,社会政治风潮可能向思想与意识形态领域扩散,亚太地缘战略格局重组磨合具有不确定性,各种不稳定因素相互交织、影响全球,国际形势动荡不定。

The Current International Situation and Trends

In the post-financial crisis era,the world and regional order is in transition and the current international situation is characterized by complexity,uncertainty and high risk.The major characters of the current international situation include the impact of the economic difficulty of the developed world on the world economic recovery,governance made difficult by global social and political conflicts,the competition-cooperation game between world powers,deteriorating security environment from increasing conventional and non-conventional challenges,and the restructuring of the Asian-pacific geopolitical pattern.In 2012,the world economy will recover slowly,the general election in the states will increase political sensitivity globally,the competition and cooperation between western powers and emerging powers will be more complex,social and political ideas are likely to influence the ideological realm,the restructuring of the Asian-pacific pattern is quite uncertain.The international situation will be quite instable because of the many interactive instability factors.