Mehr Zuwanderer,mehr Fremdenangst? Ein Überblick über den Forschungsstand und ein Erklärungsversuch aktueller Entwicklungen in Deutschland

The share of residents with foreign roots in Germany will rise considerably in the next years. A crucial societal question will certainly be whether natives will get used to the increasing level of ethnic diversity or whether anti-immigrant threat perceptions will rise. There is an obvious empirical paradox in the context of this question: On the one hand, high immigration usually coincides with more skeptical views towards immigration and greater success for right-wing political parties. On the other hand, these reactions are often over-represented in regions where the actual share of migrants is rather low. This paper presents an overview of theories and evidence on this apparent contradiction. A crucial factor which can at least partially reconcile these ambivalent findings is the geographic level of analysis: If the national share of migrants increases, media coverage of the topic is greater and fears among the population accordingly rise in most cases. On the level of regions, however, effects of contact and habituation are strongest, such that people living in high-immigrant regions tend to perceive immigration in a more positive way. On the level of city districts, the relationship seemingly turns negative again. Here, the more tolerant citizens live in residential areas with a low to moderate share of migrants, while natives living in districts with many foreigners tend to move away or vote for far-right parties, as the success of the “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) in the 2016 state elections suggests. A number of conclusions can be drawn with regard to current developments in Germany.