中美贸易战背景下的中国-东盟关系:影响、风险与应对

中美贸易战是2018年最重要的外交事件之一,对中美两国将产生持久和深刻的影响,并且这种影响将不可避免地扩散到两国之外。作为介于中美之间的"第三方",东盟国家即使希望但也不可能独善其身,这已经并将继续在贸易及其之外的更多领域表现出来。展望未来,南海问题、"印太战略"以及美湄合作等有可能成为美国打压中国的"后手拳",这必将进一步考验中国-东盟关系。在此背景下,尽可能地减少中美贸易战的"外溢"效应,避免中美关系对中国-东盟关系产生连锁负面影响,甚至反过来将中国-东盟关系打造成贸易战的破局点,形成"东方不亮西方亮"的有利格局,是当前中国外交的迫切任务。中国应通过深入对接中国-东盟发展战略,扩大对东南亚的市场开放,加快推进RCEP顺利达成协议,加强与第三方市场合作等方式,抓住"战略机遇期",构建中国-东盟的高水平战略伙伴关系。

China-ASEAN Relations in the Background of Sino-US Trade War:Impacts,Risks and Countermeasures

The Sino-US trade war is one of the most important diplomatic events in 2018, which will have a lasting and profound impact on China and the United States, and also with spill-over influence. As a “third party” between China and the United States, ASEAN countries can’t be intact even if they hope so, and this will increasingly show up in more areas than trade. In the future, the South China Sea, the “Indo-Pacific strategy”, and the US-Mekong Cooperation may become the “follow-up punches” of the United States to suppress China, which will further test the China-ASEAN relationship. In this background, it is urgent for China to reduce the “spill-over” effect of Sino-US trade war as much as possible, to avoid the negative impact on China-ASEAN relations or even make this a breakthrough in trade wars, to form a favorable setup of “What one loses on the swings, he gets back on the roundabouts”. China should deepen its China-ASEAN Strategic development, expand its market to Southeast Asia, speed up a smooth agreement on RCEP, and strengthen cooperation with third-party markets. China should seize the “strategic opportunity” to build a high-level partnership between China and ASEAN.