拉美民众意识形态极化趋势及其影响

拉美国家近年来政局不稳的一个重要原因在于民众的意识形态出现了极化的趋势。本文分析了2012—2019年间“美洲晴雨表”中18个拉美国家的数据,发现自2014年以来,持极端意识形态的民众尤其是持极左观点的民众比重出现了显著上升,这主要是受到经济发展形势和各国执政党意识形态两个因素的交互影响。宏观上,以极左民众比重上升为特征的极化趋势主要是受到整个区域经济持续低迷和右翼政府的紧缩性经济政策影响。微观上,本文通过回归分析发现,民众对国家经济形势的判断与其所在国执政党的意识形态共同影响着其极化方向。在右翼执政的国家,民众对国家经济形势的评价越负面,其持极左观点的概率越高,持极右观点的概率越低;在左翼执政的国家,民众对国家经济形势的评价越负面,其持极左观点的概率越低,持极右观点的概率越高。最后,本文讨论了民众意识形态极化对拉美国家政局稳定的影响。本文发现,拉美极端民众尤其是极左民众参加抗议游行的概率显著高于温和民众。这意味着一国的极端民众比重越高,其发生大规模示威游行的概率越高。

Mass Ideological Polarization and its Impact on Latin American Countries

Massive demonstrations hit several Latin American countries in 2019This paper argues that one of the main reasons for the region’s political instability is that the Latin American public have experienced ideological polarization in recent yearsBy analyzing the AmericasBarometer survey data from 2012 to 2019,this paper finds that since 2014,the proportion of extremists,especially extreme leftists,have grown significantlyThe recent mass ideological polarization in Latin America can be explained by countries’economic situation and their ruling parties’ideologiesAt the macro level,the regional mass polarization,characterized by the rise of the extreme leftists,is mainly caused by the regional economic stagnation and the right-wing governments’tight economic policiesAt the micro level,the regression results show that people’s view of the national economic situations and the ideologies of their countries’ruling parties also affect whether they hold extreme leftist or extreme rightist ideologiesIn a country ruled by a rightist government,the individual who considers the national economy has worsened is more likely to hold the extreme leftist ideology and less likely to hold the extreme rightist ideologyOn the other hand,in a country ruled by a leftist government,the individual who considers the national economy has worsened is less likely to hold the extreme leftist ideology and more likely to hold the extreme rightist ideologyFinally,this paper discusses how the mass ideological polarization affects political stabilityThis paper finds that extremists,especially extreme leftists,are more likely to participate in public protests and demonstrations than the moderatesThis means that as the proportion of extremists increases,a country’s probability of experiencing massive demonstrations also increasesUntil now,the region’s level of mass ideological polarization is still high,which means that its risk of political instability remains high.