The multi-store model for economic voting: Rome wasn't built in a day |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Political Science, Washington University in St Louis, One Brookings Drive, 63105, Saint Louis, MO, United States;2. Department of Political Science, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), Río Hondo 1, Col. Progreso Tizapán, 01080, Mexico City, Mexico;1. People''s Friendship University of Russia, 117198, Moscow Miklukho-Maklaya str. 6, Moscow, Russia;2. University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 365 Hamilton Hall, Chapel Hill, NC 26514, USA;1. Department of Political Science, Michigan State University, USA;2. Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, USA;1. Department of Sociology and Trinity College, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3BH, UK;2. Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, USA;1. Government Department, Dartmouth College, HB 6108, Hanover, NH 03755, USA;2. Political Science Department, University of Washington, 101 Gowen Hall, Box 353530, Seattle, WA 98195, USA |
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| Abstract: | The 2012 presidential election was closely contested with the media predicting that the unemployment rate announcement just before the election would be the deciding factor. If a single economic indicator could buoy up job approval ratings, delivering positive economic statistics to the voters would be a rational re-election strategy for an incumbent. In contrast, this paper presents a model in which voters do not immediately convert each economic statistic into a performance evaluation. Only after many “rehearsals” do voters convert statistics into a positive or negative evaluation. I take the case of Japan and use a survey experiment and an inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimator to assess whether short-, medium- and long-term performance evaluations form based on voter perception of economic conditions. |
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| Keywords: | Economic voting Multi-store model Survey experiment Inverse probability weighting estimator Japan |
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