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Electoral effects of candidate valence
Affiliation:1. Division of Animal and Nutritional Sciences in Department of Human Nutrition and Food, Davis College of Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Design, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia;2. Division of Bariatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, West Virgina University, Morgantown, West Virginia;3. Department of Behavioral Medicine and Psychiatry, West Virginia University School of Medicine, Morgantown, West Virginia;1. Department of Government, University of Essex, UK;2. School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, USA;1. College of Power Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, 210094 Nanjing, PR China;2. School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, 210096 Nanjing, PR China;1. Rutgers Center for Cognitive Science, 152 Frelinghuysen Rd, Piscataway, NJ 08854-80210, United States;2. Department of Psychology, UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA, United States;1. Mouse Imaging Centre, Hospital for Sick Children, 25 Orde Street, M5T 3H7, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;2. Hospital for Sick Children, 555 University Ave, Toronto, ON, M5G 1X8, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;3. Department of Medical Biophysics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, 7 floor, 610 University Ave, Toronto, ON, M5G 2M9, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;4. Tanz Centre for Research in Neurodegenerative Diseases, Krembil Discovery Tower, 60 Leonard Avenue, 4th floor, M5T 2S8, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;5. Institute of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Medical Sciences Building, 1 King''s College Circle, Room 2374, M5S 1A8, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;6. Department of Physiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, 1 King''s College Circle, Medical Sciences Building, M5S 1A8, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;1. Groupe d''Analyse et de Théorie Economique, CNRS – University of Lyon, 69130 Ecully, France;2. Department of Mathematics, Union College, Schenectady, NY 12308, United States
Abstract:Ideological proximity is not the sole determinant of electoral choices. Voters frequently select candidates whose policy profiles do not exhibit the closest match with their own policy preferences. Instead, non-spatial factors can govern the vote. The empirical literature has struggled to assess the effect of candidate valence on electoral outcomes due to the challenge of estimating a comprehensive indicator of candidate valence. This paper investigates the effect of non-spatial factors on candidates’ electoral results by estimating candidate valences from a vote advice application. A conservative estimate based on an analysis of the two-tiered German federal election system suggests a surplus of several percentage points for high-valence candidates over low-valence competitors – even for competitors from minor parties.
Keywords:Candidate valence  Non-policy voting  Mixed-member electoral systems  Germany
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