The British general election: Synthetic forecasts |
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Affiliation: | 1. Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA;2. Department of Political Science, University of Montreal, C.P. 6128, Succursale Centre-ville, Montreal, Quebec H3C 3J7, Canada;3. Department of Political Science, McGill University, 855 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, Quebec H3A 2T7, Canada;1. University of Strathclyde, United Kingdom;2. University of Essex, United Kingdom |
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Abstract: | Election forecasting work, in Britain and elsewhere, has been confined mainly to traditional approaches – statistical modeling or poll-watching. We import a new approach, which we call synthetic modeling. These models, developed out of forecasting efforts from the American 2012 presidential election, we are currently testing in a comparative European context. In this exercise, we apply the strategy to forecasting British general elections, in particular the upcoming 2015 contest. These synthetic forecasts come from hybrid models blending structural knowledge with contemporary public opinion. We generate ongoing nowcasts, from six months prior, to one month before, Election Day itself. |
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Keywords: | Synthetic models Optimal lead time Combining election forecasts |
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