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Victory without power: The Pm-Pendulum forecast
Institution:1. Economics Department, Sonoma State University, 1801 E. Cotati Avenue, Rohnert Park, CA 94928, USA;2. Economics Department, University of the Pacific, 3601 Pacific Avenue, Stockton, CA 95211, USA;1. Danish Institute for Local Government Analysis and Research, Købmagergade 22, 1150 Copenhagen K, Denmark;2. Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, opgang E, 1353 Copenhagen K, Denmark;3. Department of Political and Economic Studies, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 54, 00014 University of Helsinki, Finland;1. Department of Government, UPPSALA University, Box 514, 751 20, Uppsala, Sweden;2. Center for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS), c/o Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE-752 36, Uppsala, Sweden;3. The Europe Center (TEC), Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Encina Hall, Stanford, CA, 94305-6165, USA
Abstract:The “PM and Pendulum” model was adjusted for the 2015 General Election to take account of the Liberal-Democratic participation in government and the SNP surge. So adjusted, the model predicts a Tory vote victory by 3.4 percent over Labour. The seat forecast puts the Tories ahead with 287 seats to 263 for Labour, with 41 for the SNP. Thus another Hung Parliament! Ex-post estimates show that without the Lib-Dem adjustments the model would have predicted a Conservative majority.
Keywords:Forecasting  British elections  Cycles  Prime Minister approval
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