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Detecting manipulation in authoritarian elections: Survey-based methods in Zimbabwe |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Michigan State University, Department of Political Science, 303 South Kedzie Hall, 368 Farm Lane, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA;2. University of Malawi, Malawi;3. University of Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe;1. Department of Sociology and Trinity College, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3BH, UK;2. Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, USA;1. University of Rhode Island, Harrington School of Communication and Media, Davis Hall 210B, 10 Lippitt Road, Kingston, RI 02881, United States;2. Institute of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, Utah State University, United States;3. Senator George J. Mitchell Center for Sustainability Solutions, School of Economics, University of Maine, United States;4. Alan Alda Center for Communicating Science, School of Journalism, Stony Brook University, United States;5. University of Maine, United States |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the feasibility of using social surveys to detect electoral manipulation in authoritarian regimes. It compares official results from the July 2013 elections in Zimbabwe with findings from a nationally representative pre-election survey. The comparison confirms that the dominant incumbent party won the elections but by far smaller margins than officially reported. This discrepancy provides analytic leverage to identify the possible presence of coercive mobilization and vote suppression and to pinpoint their geographic location. The election results are re-estimated using a set of voting simulations based on novel proxy indicators and an original list experiment designed to reveal the political preferences of fearful voters. The paper concludes by discussing why autocrats manipulate elections and whether or not they succeed in their objectives. |
| Keywords: | Elections Autocracy Public opinion Experiment Manipulation Zimbabwe |
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