Guerrillas,drugs and peasants: The rational peasant and the war on drugs in Peru

Coca eradication programmes in Peru are undermined by the interaction of cocaine economics and insurgent politics. Coca cultivators can earn far more from the illegal market in coca than from any legal crop and government efforts to eradicate coca production create a political space in which Sendero Luminoso guerrillas can cultivate popular support by protecting coca cultivators from law‐enforcement agents and Colombian traffickers. We use a model of peasant decision‐making to assess the impact of crop eradication, crop substitution and drug interdiction strategies on the economic behaviour and political loyalties of Peruvian coca cultivators. We use the model to assess the likelihood that even successful anti‐drug programmes may destabilize the Peruvian government by generating popular support for Sendero Luminoso.