| Abstract: | The compositional effects of relatively large young-adult cohorts on the total rate of serious crimes is well established. The more subtle effect of relative cohort size on age-specific crime rates, suggested by Richard Easterlin, is more controversial. The literature contains no adequate test of Easterlin's hypothesis as it relates to crime. To provide an adequate test of Easterlin's theory, this study includes age-specific rates and measures of relative cohort size and controls for age and period in an age-period-relative-cohort-size model. Using arrest data from the Uniform Crime Reports (Part I crimes) for the years 1960, 1965, 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985, the analysis provides support for Easterlin's theory for property crimes, that is, for robbery, burglary, and larceny (but not for motor vehicle theft). Though these relationships were small in comparison to those between age or period and age-specific crime rates, they were generally statistically significant and were replicated with data from 1962, 1967, 1972, 1977, 1982, and 1987. The relationships between relative cohort size and assaultive crimes provided little consistent support for Easterlin's theory. |
