The conditioning role of polarization in U.S. senate election outcomes: A direct-election era & voter-level analysis |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Radiology and Imaging, Hospital for Special Surgery, New York, New York;2. Mallinckrodt Institute of Radiology, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri;3. Advanced Radiology Services PC, Division of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, Michigan State University College of Human Medicine, Grand Rapids, Michigan;4. Department of Radiology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama;1. Urogynecology Unit, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Western Galilee Hospital, Nahariya, Israel;2. Faculty of Medicine in the Galilee, Bar-Ilan University, Safed, Israel;3. Research and Development in Urogynecology, The CEO''s Office, Shaare-Zedek Medical Center, Jerusalem, Israel;4. Moscow State Medical Stomatological University, Urology Department, Russia;1. University of Nevada, Reno, United States;2. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, United States;1. Texas Tech University, United States;2. Auburn University, United States |
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| Abstract: | Recent work finds that a decline in the incumbency advantage coincides with the rise of partisanship as a determinant of congressional electoral outcomes. While this work updates our view of congressional elections, it is unclear if this holds in the more candidate-centered and high-information electoral context of the U.S. Senate. In this paper, I address these two considerations by evaluating a theory positing that polarization conditions the influence of incumbency and partisanship as Senate election determinants. Using data on the entire direct-election Senate era and survey data, this paper finds that: (1) polarization provides a partisan advantage for candidates running in states in which they are members of the partisan majority and (2) polarization positively conditions the incumbency advantage for Senators representing states that favor the other party. These findings suggest that Senators may still successfully cultivate a personal brand in the face of growing ideological differences between the parties. |
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| Keywords: | Senate elections Incumbency advantage Partisan-centered elections Polarization |
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