Voting at 16: Intended and unintended consequences of Austria's electoral reform |
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| Institution: | 1. UC San Diego, United States;2. UC Berkeley, United States;1. Department of Political Science, Ohio State University, 2140 Derby Hall, 154 N. Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1373, USA;2. Department of Political Science, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA;3. Department of Political Science, University of Missouri–St. Louis, St. Louis, MO 63121, USA;4. Department of Political Science, Ohio State University, 2143 Derby Hall, USA;1. DIW Berlin, Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany;2. FU Berlin, Garystraße 21, 14195 Berlin, Germany;1. Skidmore College, 815 N Broadway, Ladd Hall, Room 309, Saratoga Springs, NY, 12866, United States;2. California State University, Fresno, 2225 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S MF19, Fresno, CA, 93740, United States |
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| Abstract: | Several democracies are currently debating whether to lower their legal voting age to 16, but relatively little is known about the long-term consequences of such reforms. We contribute to this debate by studying electoral habit formation among 16-year-old voters in Austria, where the national-level voting age was decreased in 2007. We employ eligibility-based regression discontinuities to evaluate two consequences of the reform. First, we show that eligible 16-year-olds are more likely to vote in future elections. Second, we demonstrate that the political consequences of this reform were not neutral. Newly eligible young voters are more likely to place themselves towards the extremes of the ideological spectrum. We also simulate the cumulative long-term impact on electoral outcomes and argue that the reform was costly for the centrist government parties that initially adopted it. |
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| Keywords: | Electoral habituation Youth vote Turnout Polarization Regression discontinuity design |
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