A directional model of candidate evaluations in the 2016 presidential election |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, UK;2. Sheffield Methods Institute, University of Sheffield, UK;3. Department of Politics, University of Sheffield, UK;1. North Carolina Wesleyan College, 3400 N. Wesleyan Blvd., Rocky Mount, NC 27804, USA;2. University of North Florida, 1 UNF Drive, Jacksonville, FL 32224, USA;3. Miami University, 501 East High Street, Oxford, OH, USA;1. University of Strathclyde, United Kingdom;2. University of Essex, United Kingdom;1. School of Politics and IR, Law and Social Sciences Building, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK;2. Department of Government, Rathausstraße 19/1/9, University of Vienna, 1010 Vienna, Austria |
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| Abstract: | The 2016 U.S. presidential election provides an interesting setting for testing the directional theory of issue voting. But, when modeled using the standard approach, using the seven-point issue scales in the 2016 ANES, it is not clear whether the directional model provides any additional leverage over the more traditional proximity model. In order to get around this impasse, I examine candidate evaluations rather than issue scales. Doing so enables a direct test of directional theory against proximity theory. The empirical results show that the proximity model does not outperform the directional model. Instead, the latter outperforms the former because the directional model produces not only a succinct graphical representation of the electorate's candidate evaluations but also an explanation for the relative spatial positions of the candidates. |
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