One administration, two voices: US China policy during Bush's first term

The most intriguing thing about the China policy of the BushAdministration during its first term is not that it did notfollow up with its campaign promises. Rather it is the continuedcontradiction and inconsistency in conceptualization and implementation.Throughout the past 4 years, one heard two different voicesfrom the Administration: one advocates a candid, constructiveand cooperative relationship with China; the other insists onthe need to restrain and contain China. Since 9/11, againstthe backdrop of the war against terror, the first voice prevailedover the latter. However, while the latter voice was largelysubdued, it did reassert itself at times and on certain issues,and threatens to come back when circumstances change. Four yearsafter the Bush Administration came into office, the questionwhether China is a competitor or a partner still remained unanswered.This paper will first review the evolution of Bush Administration'sChina policy during its first term. Then it will try to analyzethe major factors shaping the development. Finally, it willspeculate on the prospect for development of the relationshipin Bush's second term.