技术权力、技术生命周期与大国的技术政策选择

大国技术竞争是指国家行为体综合运用各类政策手段争夺技术权力的过程。技术权力可分为强制性权力、网络性权力和制度性权力。技术竞争往往是一个长时段的互动过程,可能涵盖一个或多个技术生命周期。各类技术权力在一个技术生命周期内出现的时间有所不同,技术权力的积累在两个技术生命周期的交替期也可能呈现延续或中断的不同走向。这意味着在技术发展的不同阶段,竞争主体的政策选择将依据技术权力的变化而相应发生改变。美、俄、中、欧在全球卫星导航领域的博弈以及美、欧、日、中在移动通信领域的竞争,均鲜明体现了驱动国际政治行为体开展技术竞争的意愿因素(获取权力)以及它们在技术发展相应阶段的政策选择。前者仅涉及单个技术生命周期,后者则包含多个时间上紧密衔接的技术生命周期。中国是当前大国技术竞争的主要参与者。为了在竞争中立于不败之地,应注意把握技术发展的阶段性特征,因时制宜,选择与技术发展阶段匹配的技术政策,并针对下一阶段技术发展的重点方面提前进行布局,以坚持自主创新和扩大对外开放为基本原则,通过科技创新掌握技术权力,推进构建新发展格局。

Technological Power,Technology Life Cycle and Technology Policy Choices of Great Powers

Technology competition among major powers refers to the process in which state actors adopt various technology policies to compete for technological power.Technological power can be categorized as compulsory power,network power and institutional power.Technology competition is often a long-term interactive process that may cover one or more technology life cycles.Different kinds of technological power appear at different stages of a technology life cycle,and technological power accumulation may be continued or interrupted in the alternating period between two technology life cycles.Therefore,at different stages of technology life cycle,the policy choices of competitors will change accordingly with the change in technological power.The competition among the United States,Russia,China and Europe on GNSS,and the competition among the United States,Europe,Japan and China from 2 Gto 5 G have both clearly shown the factors of willingness(power acquisition)that drove them into technology competition and corresponding policy choices.While the former only involves a single technology life cycle,the latter contains more than one.China is a major player in current technology competition.To remain invincible,China should adhere to independent innovation and openingup policies,pay attention to the characteristics of different stages of technological development,take measures in accordance with the current stage on the one hand,and prepare for the following stage in advance on the other.