特朗普政府对华制裁措施探析

美国对华实施、加强制裁或者放松、结束制裁,都服务于其特定时期的对华战略和政策目标。特朗普政府采取“全政府”战略对华实施了更为频繁、剧烈、综合的各类制裁措施,其新动向包括:综合采用执法和情报手段启动“中国专案”,以二级制裁及人权和新冠肺炎疫情等议题为由显著加强对华政治制裁,对华高技术出口管制力度空前加大,更频繁地威胁使用金融制裁和加强资本脱钩等。美国加强对华制裁的态势与当前两国关系从“合作与竞争并存”走向“战略竞争加剧”的巨大变局相关。未来美国对华制裁将呈现更加常态化和更具破坏性特征,其实际效果将取决于制裁方式、力度与相关制约因素之间的合力作用,后者包括美国行政部门内部分歧、相关产业界担心损害商业利益、盟国在具体议题上态度与美国不一、各国规避美国制裁体系举措逐渐增加等。

Sanctions Imposed on China by the Trump Administration since its Inception

Whether it is imposing and intensifying sanctions on China by the US or relaxing and ending its sanctions against China,they all serve the strategic or policy goals of the US for specific times.The Trump administration has taken a“wholegovernment”approach in imposing various kinds of sanctions on China with greater frequency,intensity and comprehensiveness,which have shown some new trends:launching a“China Initiative”through an overall law enforcement and application of intelligence means;significantly increasing sanctions on China under the pretext of secondary sanctions,human rights,and COVID-19 pandemic;unprecedentedly tightening control on high-tech export to China,and more frequently threatening to apply financial sanctions and strengthen capital decoupling among others.The US intensifying its sanctions on China is associated with the drastic changes of relations between China and the US that feature a transition from“cooperation amid competition”to“intensifying strategic competition”.In future,the US sanctions on China will take on a more normal and destructive character,whose actual effects will depend on the combined effects of sanction mode,intensity and relevant constraints.