Jumping on the Trump Train or Ditching the Donald: Campaign Rhetoric and the 2016 Congressional Election |
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| Authors: | Jessica M. Hayden Sarina Rhinehart |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Political Science and Public Affairs, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC, USA;2. The Carl Albert Congressional Research and Studies Center, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA |
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| Abstract: | The 2016 general election presented an unusual challenge to Republican congressional candidates: whether to market one’s campaign as aligned with or against Donald Trump’s controversial candidacy. In this paper, we determine what district and member-level factors influence candidate endorsements of Trump for president. Second, we study if the endorsements hurt candidates on Election Day. We find that underlying political partisanship, as measured by Mitt Romney’s 2012 vote share in congressional districts, predicts much of incumbents’ support for Trump, and that candidates’ support did not harm them in the general election. |
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| Keywords: | campaigns Congress elections endorsements President Trump |
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