我国居民储蓄动机的实证研究

经济学家很早就对“人们为什么储蓄”进行了理论探讨。用1998年到2004年的季度数据对我国居民的储蓄动机进行实证分析得出的结论是:该期间人均可支配收入、利率、房屋销售价格是影响居民储蓄的主要因素,而物价变动、股票收益等为次要影响因素。从而验证了西方经济学家关于“人们的储蓄受到收入、利率的替代效应和收入效应、预防性动机等因素影响”的理论。我国居民储蓄过度,政府应对此加以引导和控制。

Positive Analysis on the Reason Why Chinese People Save their Money

Economists have studied the issue why people save their money.The author uses quarterly data from the year of 1998 to 2004 in this article to make an econometrical model which focuses on the reason why people save their money.The conclusion of the model is that income,interest rate and house price are the major factors to influence people's saving behavior,while the price fluctuation and the price of security are minor factors.Thus,the conclusion is in line with the theories of western Economists that "people's saving behavior is influenced by income,the replacing effect and income effect of interest rate,preventive motive".In the end,the author made suggestions to better manage the amount of savings in our country.