Monetary policy and presidential elections: A nonpartisan political cycle |
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Authors: | David R Hakes |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Economics, University of Missouri-St. Louis, 8001 Natural Bridge Road, 63121-4499, St. Louis, MO
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Abstract: | This paper develops a Federal Reserve reaction function which relates policy intentions to forecasts of policy objectives. Pre- and postpresidential election estimates of this reaction function for the post-Accord period of 1953–1984 suggest two conclusions:
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the Federal Reserve reacts differently to economic conditions in the pre- and postelection biennia and
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these differences in Fed behavior are not likely the result of partisan political influence, but rather the result of self-restraint by the Fed during preelection periods.
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