| Abstract: | WTO membership will dramatically change the environment within which China's financial institutions operate. It increases the urgency of many reforms, including the re-capitalization of state-owned commercial banks and the establishment of a healthy credit culture. The severe under-capitalization of state banks and many state enterprises is part of a growing domestic debt problem that cannot be solved through normal fiscal policy adjustments. It will require the sale or securitization of state assets on a much larger scale than has been undertaken so far. The approach that was taken by the government's four Asset Management Companies to non-performing loan clean-up in 1999 and 2000 was flawed and should not be repeated. State banks should play a larger role in absorbing their own accumulated losses. China should leverage its external financial strength for domestic financial clean up. If the balance of payments remains strong, a mild appreciation of the nominal exchange rate--when the risk of deflation has passed--may serve China's interest. A large and growing proportion of state assets is held in the form of non-tradable shares in partially privatized state companies. To protect state solvency, many of these shares will have to be made tradable and sold in the next 5-10 years. A further strengthening of the fiscal system, along with rapid development of domestic capital markets is essential. Breaking up some or all of the four large state-owned commercial banks into smaller units may facilitate their restructuring and eventual privatization. |
