美国与巴基斯坦关系的改善及其制约因素

冷战后,巴基斯坦在美国外交中的战略地位明显下降,特朗普上台后更是重印轻巴,推出了高度重视印度的南亚战略和印太战略,对巴基斯坦则实行极限施压政策以逼其加大反恐力度。美国的政策变化引起了巴基斯坦政府和民众的不满与抵制,两国间出现激烈的外交纷争,美巴关系陷入僵局。然而,巴基斯坦在美国的阿富汗战争和外交战略中处于不可忽视的地位,并且巴基斯坦是具有一定的对美反制能力的地区强国,特朗普政府在更为重要的阿富汗和谈问题上需要得到巴基斯坦的帮助。在权衡利弊后,特朗普政府调整对巴基斯坦政策,从以压促变调整为拉拢利用,美巴关系随之从高度紧张走向逐渐缓和。然而,美巴在短期利益和长远战略上都存在难以弥合的矛盾和分歧,双边关系发展缺乏坚实的合作基础和长远计划,两国在主要的共同利益——阿富汗政治和解方面存在目标和利益差异。此外,美印关系不断提升,使美巴双边关系的进一步发展困难重重。美国不愿放弃在巴基斯坦及邻近地区的战略利益,短期内会维持美巴合作,但从长远看,众多挑战和制约因素使两国关系存在较大的不确定性。美巴关系的走向不仅影响到南亚局势,还会冲击到我国的周边安全、中巴关系的发展以及"一带一路"倡议的推进,应当密切关注。

The Improvement of US-Pakistan Relations and Its Restrictions

After the Cold War,it was declined significantly that Pakistan's strategic position in the U.S.diplomacy.Trump put more emphasis on India in his South Asia strategy and India Pacific strategy when he came to power.The American policy caused the dissatisfaction and boycott of the Pakistani government and people.There were fierce diplomatic disputes between the two countries,and then the USPakistan Relations fell into a deadlock.However,it was difficult for the United States to force Pakistan to change its counter-terrorism policy.Pakistan played an important role in the American war in Afghanistan and its diplomatic strategy.The Trump administration's policy toward Pakistan had changed from pressing and promoting to drawing and utilizing,and the relationship between the United States and Pakistan had gradually eased from high tension.However,the development of bilateral relations lacked a solid basis for cooperation and a long-term plan.The two countries had different goals and interests in the political reconciliation of Afghanistan,a major common interest between them.The trend of U.S.-Pakistan Relations would not only affect the situation in South Asia,but also impact on the security of China's periphery,the development of Sino-Pakistani relations and the advancement of the"the Belt and Road"initiative,thus,we should be closely watched.