技术冲击、非技术冲击与中国劳动就业的实证分析

运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)方法,将技术冲击和非技术冲击对中国劳动就业的动态效应进行实证分析,得出的主要结论有:劳动就业对正向技术冲击的反应为先立即下降,随后持续上升并回到初始状态,而对正向非技术冲击的反应呈现出在一定时期内先升后降的驼峰形特征,且具有短期效应;生产率水平对技术冲击的反应在一定时期内表现出持续上升的驼峰特征,且具有长期效应,而对正向非技术冲击的反应为先立即上升,后持续下降回到原状态,且具有短期效应;劳动就业波动的根源是由技术冲击和非技术冲击共同引起的,两者都起到一定作用.这些结论对我国当前调整宏观经济政策,以促进劳动就业具有重要的启示.

An Empirical Analysis of Technology and Non-technology Shocks and Their Effects on Employment in China

Through employing the method of SVAR,we analyzed the dynamic effects of technology and non-technology shocks on the employment in China.We found that:(a) the employment(or hours worked) shows a persistent decline in response to a positive technology shock but a hump-shaped increase in response to a positive non-technology shock,and the effects are short-run;(b) the productivity shows a persistent hump-shaped increase in response to the technology shock which exercises a long-running effect,while the product...