Election observer effects: A field experiment in the Russian Duma election of 2011 |
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| Affiliation: | 1. People''s Friendship University of Russia, 117198, Moscow Miklukho-Maklaya str. 6, Moscow, Russia;2. University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 365 Hamilton Hall, Chapel Hill, NC 26514, USA;1. Rice University, USA;2. Karadeniz Technical University, Turkey;1. Department of Political Science, Washington University in St Louis, One Brookings Drive, 63105, Saint Louis, MO, United States;2. Department of Political Science, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), Río Hondo 1, Col. Progreso Tizapán, 01080, Mexico City, Mexico;1. Department of Solid State Physics, Faculty of Physics and Applied Informatics, University of Lodz, Pomorska 149/153, 90-236 Lodz, Poland;2. Institute of Experimental Physics, Faculty of Physics, University of Warsaw, Pasteura 5, 02-093 Warsaw, Poland;3. Department of Physics, Gazi University, Teknikokullar, 06500 Ankara, Turkey;4. Institute of Electronic Materials Technology, Wolczynska 133, 01-919 Warsaw, Poland;1. Center for Research and Opinion Polls (CROP), Lomé, Togo;2. Smith College, Northampton, MA, USA;3. UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA;1. Universidade de Brasília, IPOL Campus Darcy Ribeiro Asa Norte, Brasília, DF, Brazil;2. University of Texas-Austin, 158 W 21st St Stop A1800, Austin, TX 78712-1704, USA |
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| Abstract: | The literature on elections and election monitoring is divided between those who take a skeptical view, suggesting that monitors are often political rather than objective in their judgments, and those who see monitors as a real force for cleaner, more honest elections. Studies that use field experiments to look for the effect of monitors generally support the optimists, indicating that the mere presence of election observers can have powerful effects. This is surprising given the extent of the resources available to incumbents who wish to conduct electoral fraud. We present the results of an experiment in which 768 observers were randomly assigned to polling stations in 21 cities in Russia in the 2011 parliamentary elections. Unlike most previous studies of election observers, our results suggest that observer effects on turnout and vote for the ruling party are small. The results suggest the need to study more carefully the circumstances that shape the impact of observation missions. |
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| Keywords: | Elections Election monitors Field experiment Russia |
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